The headlines on their website couldn’t be more of a lie “Independent, Unbiased Research”. AmTech first caught the eyes of investors when the came out with a downgrade the day before earnings of Garmin (GRMN). It even caught the attention of Jim Cramer who thought it was very odd but didn’t go as far as mentioning names. This crew over at AmTech is more about garnering attention than they are about making their clients money. Now that they have WallStreets attention it is obvious they are going too make people money by frontrunning their press releases which are extremely harsh and continuous. Here is the first release from Rob Sanderson the day before earnings.
[Garmin] is a leader in GPS devices and has been a share gainer in the high growth PND (personal navigation device) market. GRMN is a well-run company, management is well-respected for their ability to deliver and GMRN products are considered by many to be the best. Upside this quarter is expected: PND market leader TomTom stumbled in Q2 with supply constraints and GRMN gained ground. Several product introductions by other competitors have also been delayed. GMRN often blows away consensus, but the stock reaction is more muted and sometimes negative. GRMN reports Q2 earnings tomorrow [Wednesday], before the market open. Beyond this quarter, we see 20%+ downside in the stock for several reasons: a cautious outlook for consumer spending GRMN has grown at the expense of struggling competitors, Magellan in particular – incremental share gains will be more difficult new competition is entering the market 28-30% net margin is very difficult for a hardware supplier to sustain we believe that longer term demand for navigation will shift away from PNDs to auto in-dash systems and cell phones all stocks with significant PND market exposure have recently blown up the stock has been a great performer, while the tech sector, retailers and most companies with consumer exposure have been weak This is admittedly an aggressive call ahead of what is expected to be a very strong quarter. We like the risk-reward for the stock to decline on good results, as we have seen several times this earnings season. Investors with less risk appetite might prefer to wait on results and outlook. Should the stock rally on a strong quarter, we would be aggressive sellers of strength. We are initiating a $75 per share price target
TraderMike picked up on it as well wondering if the “had a vendetta against Garmin” because they keep release such bad press releases on an almost daily basis. Here is one from today via TraderMike.net
GRMN Garmin: Serious concerns with the co on a forward going basis – Amtech (46.20 )
Amtech says that while GRMN is the leader in GPS devices and has been a share gainer in P.N.D., they have some serious concerns with the co on a forward going basis. While they think GRMN is a well run co with a respected management, increasing competition in PNDs, expected margin pressure and questionable consumer outlook keeps them concerned. With less than 10% bottom line growth, they say a 15x multiple is fair given this deceleration in earnings growth along with expected margin compression. At 15x their CY07 they arrive at a $32pt, suggesting ~30%+ downside from current levels.
All this is getting crazy. I suggest the SEC look into the trading of AmTech. I do not have a position in Garmin mostly because of AmTech. I can’t post my opinion on Briefing.com like they can. They are so merciless I was forced to sit on the sidelines. I don’t know the rules but I don’t agree with the constant press releases “reempasizing” their sell rating. We get it. I hope something happens to them or atleast companies stop sharing any info with them due to their terrible ethics.