As a publisher of many sites and a friend of many other publishers I can 100% prove that clicks on Google ads are way down the last two months. Parked websites that rely on clicks, are taking a hit as well. To further document the stagnant trend, this article came out today

Data from comScore indicate that Google’s paid clicks in February rose only 3% compared with the same month a year earlier, a note by Bank of America analyst Brian Pitz said. The comScore data is only released to Wall Street analysts. Paid clicks are the number of times Google search users click on a sponsored-search result, generating revenue from the company’s advertising customers.
Google reported 25% growth in paid clicks in its fiscal fourth quarter ended in December. But comScore data released last month showed flat growth in Google’s paid clicks in January, triggering concerns about its health amid the U.S. economic slowdown.

As an investor in Google I think that the exponential growth of the past is coming to a slowdown. I always felt the true indicators would be 1st and 2nd quarters and not Christmas. Based on the first quarter, there may be more downside to the stock. Google certainly is a great long term hold. They are the leaders of the industry and have more than enough talent and foresight to lead them past and beyond our concept of advertising as we know it. As the transition occurs there will certainly be volatility in the stock as we all guess how it’s going by using reports such as these.