Now that it is all but assured that online gambling will cease to be available to U.S. residents is it possible that many of these people will move into the trading arena? It is estimated that $12 billion is spent gambling online but I would guess that the number is 3 times this. This money will more than likely be spent somewhere else. Why wouldn’t they move into trading? There is no doubt in my mind that most of people that gamble online are addicted gamblers. Maybe not to the point they have caused financial harm to themselves or others but certainly to the point they have to have the thrill of the wager to complete their day. Without the adrenaline boost provided by betting on sports or playing poker, most of these people will “jones” until they can get their fix. The reason I felt this is will be a transition for many of these people is the fact that this was my road. I loved the thrill of gambling on sports but soon realized that this was merely tossing a coin and the outcome was not based on anything but pure luck. Then I started to look into stocks. There are trends, moving averages, charts, and actual mathematical computations that translate into stock movement. Yes, there is still a huge amount of luck involved but skill goes much further than luck is the trading arena. Not so with sports. How many times did someone drop an easy pass, go into prevent defense, or have the wind start blowing out in the 6th inning on an under bet. Did anyone put those into the equation? I am not pretending that stock trading is any less risky than sports gambling but there is no doubt in my mind that it has a better chance of making you wealthy. Here is where I really think the gamblers or “gamers” as the casinos like to call them, are going to go.
1. Bookies there is going to be a huge resurgence in bookies. All the guys that were put under by the online casinos are going to be back. Those that are active now are going to start seeing a huge increase in the number of new accounts.
2. U. S. Casinos The Indian and other casinos will see much more activity as well
3. Nobody Many people will just quit gambling or will get together and play poker more often. Some people want to quit and this just might be the kickstart they wanted.
4. Brokers Many people will open trading accounts and start trading stocks but most likely options. Sports gamblers like high risk high reward plays and options are the perfect tool to achieve this.
5. Some online casino or smart business will figure out a way around the system.
This is where most people will try and go. Much like the hackers of DSS until finally the lawsuits overwhelmed people and it became too hard. Eventually it will just be too much work to gamble online and we move back to #1.
In summary, I see thousands of new accounts being opened over time related directly to people who used to gamble online. Will it really happen? I bet it will.
P.S. As a trader I see some obvious areas that will be effected by the new laws. Land casinos will see more action. Online casinos that are publicly traded are in big trouble. The shows and websites that depend on internet casino advertising are in for a big hit. No more .net advertising spots. They will all be history, taking the hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising with them. Neteller is going to have to make a transition like paypal if possible.