Lots of people were surprised by the election of Donald Trump. Indeed, famed statistician Nate Silver spent the better part of two years cranking out spectacularly incorrect assessments, to the point he released an article bragging about the accuracy of his site’s election predictions (relative to other sites’ predictions) even though:
1. He had, in fact, predicted a Hillary Clinton victory in the Electoral College.
2. As Trump’s upset approached, he actually increased Clinton’s chances of a victory, from 65 percent to 70.
Other than that, Nate absolutely nailed it.
Silver should be positively shitting himself come 2020. The online betting site Bovada has released its odds for the winner of the next presidential election and it promises to be a doozy. Here are some of the chief contenders, along with an assessment of their prospects.
Donald Trump: 2 to 1
Why He’ll Win: He’s already done it once (Electoral College-wise).
Why He Won’t: He’s already done that too (with the popular vote).
Mike Pence: 10 to 1
Why He’ll Win: One of the few folks correctly predicting a Trump win, the American University professor Allan Lichtman, has also predicted he’ll be impeached, meaning Pence might be running as the incumbent Commander-in-Chief.
Why He Won’t: Reportedly Trump almost dumped Pence before he even officially got on the ticket, so there’s no certainty he’ll be around for long.
Hillary Clinton: 20 to 1
Why She’ll Win: The second time she ran went better than the first go in 2008. Maybe third time’s the charm.
Why She Won’t: Our nation doesn’t want to hear about emails ever again.
Joe Biden: 33 to 1
Why He’ll Win: The Veep remains one of the few likable people in politics (particularly as portrayed by The Onion).
Why He Won’t: If elected in 2020, he would already be 77… and turn 78 two weeks later.
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: 100 to 1
Why He’ll Win: Has expressed interest in the job and anyone who can make San Andreas a global hit should not be underestimated.
Why He Won’t: America still might not be quite ready for man who once did… this. And this.
Kanye West: 100 to 1
Why He’ll Win: Like the Rock, actually seems interested in the presidency. (It’s a small step, but a crucial one: Ask Jeb Bush).
Why He Won’t: He released a song with Rihanna and Paul McCartney… and even with that help couldn’t get it to #1. This may not be the man to beat the odds.
Chelsea Clinton: 100 to 1
Why She’ll Win: Bush Jr. got two terms.
Why She Won’t: Right now, no one on either side of the aisle is demanding additional Clintons.
Kim Kardashian West: 500 to 1
Why She’ll Win: There’s one thing that gets Trump’s full attention—a sex tape. And Kim put out a doozy.
Why She Won’t: Ever since the Paris robbery, she’s been leading a much less public life and seeking the White House would change that forever. Also, her husband and the rest of her family might not like the pay cut.
Vince McMahon: 500 to 1
Why He’ll Win: WWE owner has extra motivation to avenge his Battle of the Billionaires defeat and subsequent head shaving by Trump. (Note: Yes, this actually happened.)
Why He Won’t: Based on his wife’s two runs for the U.S. Senate, spending nearly $100 million and coming up with nothing, maybe McMahons belong in the actual ring and not the political one.
Gary Johnson: 500 to 1
Why He’ll Win: Already ran in 2016 as a Libertarian and finished third.
Why He Won’t: So far behind Dwayne Johnson he genuinely cannot smell what the Rock is cooking.